The IPO window is open wider than it has been in four years, portfolios are pushing past the ten-year mark, and half of Sand Hill Road is still holding paper. A generation of GPs who raised record funds between 2020 and 2022 never actually learned how to return capital — they learned how to raise the next fund.
The math that worked in a zero-rate world breaks when your LPs start asking for distributions instead of commitments. The firms that survive won’t be the ones with the best deal flow. They’ll be the ones that remember an exit isn’t a down round with a press release.
